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SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC (SIGA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered a sharp sequential rebound: Product sales $79.8M and total revenues $81.4M vs $8.9M and $10.0M in Q3; diluted EPS $0.63 vs $0.02 in Q3, though down year over year from $1.01 in Q4 2023 .
  • Mix-driven quarter: ~$60M to U.S. SNS (oral + IV), ~$9M to U.S. DoD, and ~$11M international; management noted an East Asia sale more than double the largest prior regional sale, highlighting diversification .
  • Balance sheet and visibility: Cash $155.4M; outstanding procurement orders ~$70M expected to be delivered in 2025; no debt per CFO commentary .
  • Japan approval of TEPOXX (TPOXX) broadened the regulatory footprint (smallpox, mpox, cowpox, post-vaccination complications), with JBP as exclusive distributor; management continues to target a new long-term U.S. SNS contract in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • International/regulatory expansion: Japan approved TEPOXX for smallpox, mpox, cowpox and post-vaccination complications; “first antiviral therapy approved by the PMDA... for the treatment of orthopoxviruses,” with initial delivery to build Japan’s stockpile .
  • Revenue execution and mix: Q4 recognized ~$60M SNS, ~$9M DoD, and ~$11M international sales; CFO emphasized the East Asia sale as a milestone “more than double” the prior largest regional sale .
  • Cash strength and order book: Year-end cash $155.4M; ~$70M outstanding orders slated for 2025 delivery, supporting near‑term visibility and optionality for capital returns .

What Went Wrong

  • Year-over-year decline on key metrics: Q4 2024 revenues ($81.4M) and diluted EPS ($0.63) fell versus Q4 2023 ($116.5M, $1.01), reflecting a different product mix and lower SNS volumes YoY .
  • Mpox efficacy trials: Interim STOMP results did not show improvement in time to lesion resolution vs placebo in mild to moderate clade II mpox; management reiterated potential benefit for early/severe cases but acknowledges study limitations .
  • PEP timeline pushed out: PEP submission timing moved from “third quarter of 2025” (Q3 call) to “early 2026” as CDC completes immunogenicity analyses, extending the regulatory path .

Financial Results

Metric ($USD)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Product Sales ($MM)$115.7 $8.9 $79.8
Total Revenues ($MM)$116.5 $10.0 $81.4
Operating Income (EBIT) ($MM)$91.7 $0.5 $57.1
Net Income ($MM)$72.3 $1.3 $45.7
Diluted EPS ($)$1.01 $0.02 $0.63

Segment/channel mix (Q4 2024 recognized):

Revenue SourceQ4 2024 ($MM)
U.S. SNS (oral + IV)≈$60.0
U.S. DoD (oral + IV)≈$9.0
International (oral)≈$11.0
Total Product Sales$79.8

Selected KPIs:

KPIValue
Cash and Cash Equivalents (12/31/24)$155.4M
Accounts Receivable (12/31/24)$21.17M
Inventory (12/31/24)$49.56M
Outstanding Procurement Orders (12/31/24)≈$70.0M; management expects 2025 delivery
Total Liabilities (12/31/24)$28.53M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
PEP sNDA submission timingRegulatoryTargeting Q3 2025 Targeting early 2026 Delayed
Outstanding orders deliveryFY 2025Not explicitly timedExpect full ~$70M delivered in 2025 Clarified timing (maintained visibility)
New U.S. SNS contract (RFP)2025Target issuance in 2025 “Objective of completing a new contract in 2025” Maintained
Capital return decision (special dividend)20252024 dividend paid in April Capital decision anticipated in Q2 2025 Timing indication

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
U.S. SNS/DoD contracts$113M oral TPOXX order exercised; IV deliveries ongoing; targeting longer-term RFP Outstanding orders $146M; shipping started; targeting new 5–10yr contract in 2025 ~$70M outstanding orders; delivery expected in 2025; pursuing new contract in 2025 Maintained/advancing
International expansionASEAN orders; moving promo in-house from Meridian; lower fees First Africa sale (Morocco); continued diversification East Asia sale >2x prior largest; Japan approval and JBP distribution Strengthening
Regulatory (Japan, PEP)NDA review in Japan expected early next year; PEP immunogenicity work ongoing Planning PEP submission Q3 2025; Japan decision expected early next year Japan approved; PEP shifted to early 2026 Mixed (win in Japan; delay in PEP)
Mpox clinical dataPALM007 topline imminent; STOMP enrollment rising PALM007 didn’t meet primary; signals in early/severe cohorts STOMP interim negative on primary endpoint; management reiterates early/severe rationale Neutral-to-negative (for mild cases)
Capital allocation$0.60 special dividend paid Apr 2024 Emphasis on prudent cash, no debt Q2 decision anticipated; strong cash Ongoing discipline

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was a year of strong financial performance... delivered $133 million in product sales and $70 million of pre-tax operating income... we remain focused on durable growth and impact, supported by approximately $70 million of outstanding procurement orders.” — CEO Diem Nguyen .
  • “We achieved another international regulatory approval when Japan’s PMDA... approved TPOXX for... orthopoxviruses. This approval marked another important milestone...” — CEO .
  • “Pretax operating income... approximately $57 million for the 3 months ended December 31, 2024... cash balance of $155 million and no debt... $70 million outstanding order balance... expected to deliver in 2025.” — CFO Dan Luckshire .
  • “We stand ready to negotiate with the new ASPR with the objective of completing a new contract in 2025.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Deliveries and order timing: Management expects the full ~$70M outstanding orders at year-end to be delivered in 2025; deliveries to start in Q2 based on coordination with the U.S. government .
  • Capital return cadence: Special dividend decisions are dynamic; Board typically decides in Q2; 2024 special dividend was declared in March and paid in April .
  • Japan distribution economics: Terms with JBP undisclosed; distribution agreements are a more efficient model than the prior Meridian promotion fees .
  • Inventory composition: Includes product for outstanding orders and API to enable responsiveness to future orders .
  • Mpox clinical narrative: Management underscored mechanism-of-action rationale for benefit in early/severe cases despite STOMP/PALM007 primary endpoint outcomes .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at request time; comparison to consensus for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS cannot be provided due to data access limits (SPGI request limit exceeded). If required, we can refresh and add comparisons once S&P Global access is restored [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential surge: Q4 product sales and EPS rebounded sharply vs Q3, driven by SNS, DoD and international mix; YoY declines reflect a different quarterly mix versus a very strong Q4 2023 .
  • International/regulatory momentum: Japan approval and the East Asia sale (>2x prior largest regional sale) underscore growing non-U.S. demand and diversification; this is a potential re‑rating catalyst as international frameworks mature .
  • Near-term visibility: ~$70M outstanding orders expected to be delivered in 2025 provide revenue clarity; watch delivery phasing beginning in Q2 .
  • U.S. contract renewal: Management targets completing a new SNS contract in 2025; size/duration could be a key stock driver given the prior $546M contract frame of reference .
  • Capital returns: Strong cash ($155.4M) and no debt position support optionality; management anticipates a capital decision in Q2 (e.g., special dividend), a potential near-term catalyst .
  • Mpox read‑through: Clinical endpoints in mild/moderate disease weren’t met, but signals in early/severe cohorts align with mechanism; investors should focus on timing‑of‑treatment and severity sub‑analyses rather than headline endpoints .
  • PEP submission delayed: PEP sNDA timing moved to early 2026; monitor CDC immunogenicity analysis completion mid‑2025 as the gating item .